Author(s): Ghanima Chanzi, Magreth Bushesha, Subira Munishi and Adam Karia

Abstract: Land use and cover changes, largely due to urban development and infrastructure growth, are significantly impacting natural ecosystems worldwide, particularly in less developed regions. In Africa, these alterations result in land degradation, reduced productivity, and biodiversity loss, causing issues like water scarcity, drought, and food insecurity.The study analyzed these changes in the Kilombero Basin, using GIS and remote sensing techniques to predict shifts from 2020 to 2070, focusing on the impact of agricultural expansion. Data was derived from the Digital Elevation Model and Landsat Images, analyzed using ArcGIS 10.5 and TerrSet2020 systems, achieving over 75% model accuracy.The 30-year analysis (1990-2020) showed significant effects on forest distribution. Forest and grassland areas, initially dominant, have markedly decreased, while agricultural land, Shrubland, and built-up areas have increased. The most substantial shifts were the sharp forest decline and agricultural land expansion.By 2070, the study predicts more built-up areas and further wetland shrinkage. Forests and grasslands are expected to decrease, while agricultural land is set to expand, assuming unchanged drivers.

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